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Monthly Archives: December 2013

Bitcoin in the real world

I used to move millions of EUR/USD/GBP around the world through multiple bank accounts on a weekly basis as part of my previous jobs in both investment and commercial banking. Depending on the type of accounts and clients (usually other banks) the actual movement of funds did not take the 3-4 working days as is commonly touted by high-street bankers.

Settlement_Reconciliation_flow1

The actual time it takes for most funds to transfer is the time taken for a SWIFT / fax/ TELEX  message to be delivered (with its own security procedures), a banker’s authorisation, and the few key strokes to enter the change in the ledger. In an efficient office, with the infrastructure to quickly check the credit of clients, the compliance of the transfer (i.e. the sender/ beneficiary are not blacklisted etc.) this process could take a mere 10 minutes (the same time as a Bitcoin confirmation). BUT who has this “efficient office”? with the high volume world-wide transactions the time your transaction request is send it is probably just one in a constantly growing to-do-tray! What if there were robots/ computers to do this request, confirmation and ledger update for you? That is exactly what the infrastructure of Bitcoin enables. Getting robot/ computers to do mundane tasks have been around for a while now. Take a modern auto mobile production line, sure it can do things quicker, with less human-error, and less down-time. Yet the Bitcoin “quicker” is actually debatable, as Bitcoin does not go through the authorisation, compliance, and blacklist checks that regulated banks are supposed to (except HSBC). What Bitcoin does today is the equivalent of building a car without safety checks. Bitcoin skips a few steps so of course it is going to do things quicker; one reason why Bitcoin does this is because it is built to exist in a perfect, black-list-free, and error-free world as programmers wishfully but unrealistically intended. If a compliance bolt-on could be somehow added to the Bitcoin infrastructure then I am sure that at least the governments would be happier.

Bitcoin is something that humans need to interact with therefore from a realistic perspective, not an perfect-world perspective we argue the case that Bitcoin is a marvellous proof of concept, core-infrastructure, yet more development is need for real useful majority usage (a.k.a. crossing the chasm). I have seen first-hand the request of transfer of funds worth millions of USD only to be recalled later whether due to miscommunication, auto-fill “typo”, or human-error. What happened later was some form of saving grace or fund reversal and worse cases have been fines or interest charges, a few percent of the total. These mistakes were performed by paid, seasoned, professionals/ bankers. Now if we allow the market/ public control the dealings of fund transfer with the Bitcoin infrastructure it is empowering everyone to become a bank manager. Great! more power the better, right? Well, yes if you are also willing to shoulder the responsibility. There are reasons why we outsource things to others- greater expertise, greater responsibility or to reduce risks yet one of the liberating characteristics of Bitcoin is to give us the ability to control our own money “in-house”. Not a bad thing, for those who want it, for those that feel that the current banking system is too expensive or too limiting. Now also consider the other half of the transaction… the beneficiary/ payee/ vendor, is he someone you trust or an unknown online? why are you giving him you Bitcoin? are you hoping to get something in return? Banks, compliance officers, black-lists all play a part in ensuring trustworthy exchanges.

Bitcoin payments are irreversible which is great in a perfect world, if all vendors are trustworthy and also if humans never made a mistake, after all, we are now all empowered to shoulder the responsibility which includes the fines and loses. Not being able to separate man from his nature apps or policies can be made to address the trustworthy-ness of vendors and the inevitability of errors if not but a safety net for those who are getting used to their new roles as bank managers.

Trust on the other hand is not in short supply if you know where to look. Many people want to provide a legitimate good or service for a price. Therefore in conjunction with Bitcoin things like rating sites or market forums may also proliferate in order to build market trust. On the other hand, the already established rating sites could use this advantage to act as an intermediary for referring customers to highly rated/ trusted sites (as I already hypothesised here).

bitcoin

Bitcoin, at the end of the day is bare-bones. If you want compliance, legality, trust and something to protect against mistakes then a whole host of policies, bolt-ons, apps, companies and websites can be used to flesh Bitcoin out for the common user. From the stand point of in-store transactions such as for a coffee etc. there seems to be enough trust and legitimacy in this exchange to showcase the benefits of Bitcoin without these added apps. Yet I do not see the reason to do so, regular cash transaction would be at no disadvantage or extra expense and neither is a debit card transaction.  There is no added benefit to using Bitcoin in this instance, instead, one should segment the types of goods and services in which using Bitcoins would have an advantage (e.g. online mirco-payments, large payments etc.) and in these instances it is very possible that the additional “safety nets” hypothesised above would  be very useful to help Bitcoin users along in the real world.

Recent discussion with the CEO of Greenbank

In a recent discussion with the CEO of Greenbank, D. Wettreich I witnessed the opinions of a chief that recognised the external environment but discounted its dynamism. The unwavering stance that “Bitcoin is here to stay” is also evident in the way Mr Wettreich prescribes 2 factors that are “always a recipe for success” and the refusal to separate Bitcoin from its ideology.

Conversely, I highlighted the “second-mover-advantage” of an easier-to-use, less-tainted, and more regulated crypto-currency based on my own dissertation research of 108 companies and users (found in the pages of this website). Speaking about Porter’s 5 market forces model and the hold traditional banks have on “complimentary/ substitute products” I urged him to consider the brand-value (perception of security) and current market penetration (reach) that traditional banks have. Thus a strong position to contend with Bitcoin’s current market standing… that according to Mr. Wettreich “is here to stay”.

Judge for yourself, click for hi-res:

Convo with Greenbank

Any update of this conversation will be duly added in the comments section..

Ups and downs

Going from explaining what Bitcoins are to being meet with a “oh cool” to when I talk about my dissertation is at least a sign that my research filled the requirements of “relevant market value” that was specified on the dissertation mark scheme.

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Researching this subject since 2012 the above candlestick chart shows how I would like to believe the market reacted to my dissertation submission. This of course is fictional as my exposure is no way the size that can move mountains like this. Bitcoin itself has remained the same all this time but the many stories in the media/ external environment have affected this upward trend in Bitcoin price.

Here are the my top three environmental situations for the recent rise in price.

1. A large grey/ black goods website called Silk Road was shut down which helped clean up the perception of Bitcoin uses (reported on 2 Oct 2013).
2. A US senate committee called Bitcoin a legitimate currency (18 Nov 2013).
3. China was silent on Bitcoin which drove speculators to trade assuming China to follow US’s footsteps.

The 4th Dec saw the value of Bitcoin starting on a downward trend, losing about 40% of its value in 3 days.

Here are the my top three environmental reasons for Bitcoin’s decline:

1. China said Bitcoin was not a currency (5 Dec 2013).
2. The successful 100 million USD heist/fraud story on Sheep Marketplace (2 Dec 2013). Reminding many people that they are actually not equipped with the knowledge or technology to protect their fortunes, especially those investors who are just following the crowd.
3. The quick rise in value means that Bitcoin investors are speculating that Bitcoin is a bubble or cautious of investing further due to its lack of precedence/ historical data.

Prices can fall but you can’t unlearn something. Bitcoin has come from obscurity to buzzword, the ideology has been revealed so there is little doubt that cryto-currency will survive. As stated in my dissertation (Introduction) Bitcoin can work as a proof-of-concept and fall as Napster or the first VoIP program did to bittorrent sites and Skype respectively. Whether Bitcoin does not give way to an easier, more secure, and government-backed alternative is a trend that we DO have records for.